Rutherford County Real Estate Market Update | July 21, 2025

Rutherford County Real Estate Market Update

Week of July 21, 2025

Every Monday we spotlight what’s really happening in Rutherford County’s housing market—including Murfreesboro, Smyrna, LaVergne, Eagleville, and everywhere in between. Below is this week’s data‑driven recap, plus a few takeaways to guide buyers and sellers through today’s shifting landscape.

Quick Stats at a Glance

Key Point

A 3.15‑month supply keeps Rutherford County in balanced‑to‑slightly‑seller‑favored territory. Inventory has come off its spring peak, yet remains higher than last summer’s 2.5‑month level—giving buyers a bit more breathing room without erasing sellers’ leverage.

Nashville MSA: “Prices Are Falling!” … or Are They?

Headline writers point out that the Nashville‑Davidson‑Murfreesboro‑Franklin MSA is ‑0.14 % year‑over‑year—a technical decline. In reality, that’s essentially flat. Context:

• 110 of the nation’s top 300 markets now show YoY price dips.

• Many Sunbelt metros (e.g., parts of Florida, Austin) see far larger declines (4‑10 %).

For Middle Tennessee, prices have largely leveled, not crashed.

Are Sellers Losing Money?

Redfin reports 6 % of today’s U.S. sellers risk closing below what they paid. Compare that with 65 % in 2012. Locally:

• Nashville MSA: 5.2 % of sellers may sell at a loss.

• Translation: 95 % still exit ahead or break even, leaving wiggle room for negotiations without panic pricing.

Affordability Update

Remember the “affordability triangle”:

1. Mortgage rates – Hovering above pandemic lows but near long‑term averages.

2. Home prices – Steady to slightly down.

3. Household wages – Up ~4 % YoY, outpacing the +1.7 % median home‑price gain nationwide.

With earnings rising faster than prices, affordability is improving—even if rates stay range‑bound.

What This Means for You

Buyers

• More choices than last summer, especially $300K–$500K.

• Flat pricing and rising wages help balance today’s interest‑rate headwinds.

• Sellers remain realistic—only a handful face negative equity—so thoughtful offers and inspection credits still land wins.

Sellers

• Inventory is climbing but months of supply remains historically low.

• Well‑priced homes—especially under $400K—continue to secure contracts in days, not weeks.

• Price right, prepare well, and negotiate from a position of data‑driven confidence.

Let’s Talk Strategy

Whether you’re planning to list, buy, or simply want to understand how national headlines translate to your neighborhood, we’re here to help. Our 48 years of local expertise mean we don’t just quote numbers—we interpret them to meet your goals.

John & Tracy Turner
Turner Victory Team | Onward Real Estate
📧 John@TurnerVictory.com | 📱 615.586.0900 | ☎️ Office 615.234.5020
🌐 TurnerVictory.com

Follow the market between updates:
Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn | YouTube

Make it a great week, and check back next Monday for fresh stats and insights!