Is 2026 the Year of the Murfreesboro Real Estate Market Bounce Back?

The first full week of 2026 brought some serious energy to the Murfreesboro real estate market. After a slower 2025, the numbers this week suggest buyers are ready to move. In this week's market update video, I break down what happened and share my prediction for where things are headed.

94 Homes Went Under Contract This Week

Let's start with the big number. This week, 94 homes went under contract across Rutherford County. To put that in perspective, the same week last year only had 57 pendings. That's a major jump.

It's not just the numbers either. The phones have been ringing more. Emails and texts are picking up. There's a different feel right now compared to where we were at this time last year. Something is shifting, and the data backs it up.

We also saw 148 new listings hit the market this week. Active inventory sits at 1,326 homes, up slightly from 1,292 last week. There were 52 closings and 115 homes were pulled off the market for various reasons.

Mortgage Rates Hit a 3-Year Low

On Thursday, the weekly mortgage rate data came in at 6.16 percent for a 30-year fixed loan. That was already close to a 14-month low. Then on Friday, President Trump made a major announcement about housing policy, and rates briefly dipped to 5.99 percent.

That's the lowest mortgage rates have been in three years.

On a $425,000 home, which is about average across the country, that rate drop saves a buyer around $118 per month. That matters for families trying to figure out if they can afford to buy.

I cover the details of what caused this drop in the video, including the administration's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.

Two Big Announcements from the Trump Administration

There were actually two major housing-related announcements from Washington this week. The first one, the mortgage bond buyback, is what pushed rates below 6 percent.

The second announcement was about potentially banning institutional investors from owning residential homes. These are the large real estate investment trusts that have been buying up single-family homes in markets like ours.

At one point, nearly 10 percent of homes in Rutherford County were owned by these investment trusts. Between 5,000 and 8,000 homes in our county are owned by investors at any given time. If this policy moves forward, it could have a real impact on our local market.

I dig into both of these topics in this week's video and explain what they could mean for buyers and sellers here in Middle Tennessee.

2025 Year-End Numbers Are In

Rutherford County closed out 2025 with 5,362 home sales. That's the lowest number of closings we've seen since 2013. The average days on market for homes that sold was 34 days, and the list-to-sale price ratio was 98.63 percent.

The average price per square foot across the county was $226, and the highest sale of the year was $10 million.

These numbers tell an important story. Sales volume dropped, but prices held relatively steady. Buyers who were in the market last year had more negotiating power than they did in 2021 or 2022, but we didn't see a crash. If you want to understand how inventory levels have changed over the past few years, I covered that in detail last week.

My 2026 Prediction

In the video, I go on record with my prediction for where I think 2026 is headed. Based on the data I'm tracking and what I'm seeing in day-to-day real estate activity, I believe 2025 was the bottom of this cycle.

I walk through a chart that goes back to 2000 showing yearly closings in Rutherford County. There's a pattern that looks similar to what happened after the last downturn. The recovery tends to come faster than the decline.

Watch the full video to hear my specific prediction and the reasoning behind it.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

If you're a seller, I believe the worst is behind us from a pricing standpoint. We may see another small dip early this year, but the data suggests we're near the bottom.

If you're a buyer, the worst appears to be behind us on mortgage rates. If rates continue to drop and demand picks up, inventory could tighten and competition could increase. Buying now and refinancing later might be the smarter play.

I break all of this down in the video with charts and data to back it up.

Watch the Full Market Update

This week's update covers a lot of ground. If you're thinking about buying or selling in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County this year, this video will help you understand where the market stands and where it might be going.

Watch the full video here:

If you have questions about your specific situation, feel free to reach out. I'm happy to talk through the numbers and help you figure out your best path forward.

John Turner

Team Lead, Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate

With over 25 years of experience and more than 4,200 homes sold, John Turner helps buyers and sellers in Murfreesboro and Rutherford County make informed real estate decisions backed by real market data.

Website: TurnerVictory.com

Homebuyer Guide: TurnerVictory.com/homebuyer-guide

Seller Guide: TurnerVictory.com/sell-your-home

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