Murfreesboro Pending Sales Jump 16% as Mortgage Rates Drop Nearly a Full Point Over Last Year

Buyers are coming back to the Murfreesboro housing market. This week, pending sales jumped 16% compared to last week, and we are already outpacing where we were at this time in 2025. The main driver is mortgage rates. They have dropped nearly a full point from where they were a year ago, and that is making a real difference in affordability and buyer confidence.

Here is what the numbers looked like this week in Rutherford County.

This Week's Murfreesboro Market Snapshot

We currently have 1,352 active homes on the market. This week brought 109 new listings, and 109 homes went under contract. That is an interesting match, with the same number coming on as going off. We had 51 closings and 55 homes that were either canceled or expired.

Over the past six months, Rutherford County has sold 2,584 homes. That gives us a 3.14 month supply of inventory, which keeps us in a balanced-to-seller's market.

The average sale price over the past six months is $483,000 with a median of $429,000. Price per square foot averages $225, with a median of $215. Homes are averaging 35 days on market, and sellers are getting 98.5% of their asking price on average.

Watch the Full Video

Inventory by Price Range Tells an Interesting Story

When you break down inventory by price, you see some clear patterns. Below $300,000, we only have about 1.1 months of supply. That is very tight. The $300,000 to $500,000 range stays below three months of supply, which is still favorable for sellers.

Once you get above $500,000, we have three different price ranges sitting in the four-month range. That is more balanced territory.

Here is the surprise. The $900,000 and up bracket only has about two months of supply right now. You might expect the luxury market to be slower, but it has held up better than expected throughout this real estate cycle. Keep in mind, though, that the luxury segment is a small piece of the overall market. A couple of new listings or sales can shift those numbers quickly.

Pending Sales Are Outpacing 2025

This is the data point that stands out most this week. Looking at pending sales by week, 2026 is following the same trend as 2025 but running ahead of it.

First week of the year we had 66 pendings. Second week was 94. This week hit 109. Compare that to the same week last year, and we are clearly ahead. That 16% jump from last week is significant, and it lines up with what we are seeing on the ground. Buyers are active.

Mortgage Rates Are the Story

On January 15, the 30-year average rate sat at 6.06%. Go back to January 16 of last year, and it was 7.04%. That is basically a one-point difference over the past 365 days.

We have seen this pattern before. Back in February 2023, rates dipped to around 6.09% and we saw a spike in pending sales. The same thing happened in late September and early October of 2024. When rates touch this level, buyers respond.

Now, rates did tick back up slightly on Friday. That is normal movement. But the overall trend has been a slow decline rather than the sharp swings we saw in previous years. I do not expect rates to shoot back up to where they were last January. The data suggests we will stay in a more stable range, creeping down slowly or holding steady.

Leading Indicators Point to More Buyer Activity

We track several leading indicators to get ahead of market shifts, and two stand out this week.

First is showing activity. In the $285,000 to $300,000 range, we saw about five showings per listing this week. That is solid activity. Even more surprising, the $1 million to $1.2 million range saw eight showings per listing. The luxury market continues to perform better than expected.

Second is the MBA Purchase Index. This measures mortgage applications for home purchases. The index is near its highest level in three years. You have to go back to late 2022 and early 2023 to find numbers close to this. When this index rises, it typically means more contracts in the next three to six weeks as those applicants find homes.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Murfreesboro

If you are thinking about selling, this window is worth watching. Rates near 6% are bringing buyers back. The sweet spot in our market remains the $300,000 to $450,000 range, where inventory is tightest and demand is strongest.

If you are buying, you are competing with more activity than we saw last year at this time. But you also have better borrowing conditions than buyers faced 12 months ago. That one-point rate difference translates to real savings on monthly payments.

Looking Ahead at 2026

I said last week that I believe 2025 was the bottom of the market here in Rutherford County. Everything I am seeing in the data reinforces that view. We are not looking at a huge rebound or prices going crazy. But we are seeing more units move, more buyers engage, and a market that is healthier than it was a year ago.

Inventory will continue to build through the spring and summer. That is the normal seasonal pattern for Middle Tennessee. But with buyer demand rising alongside it, we should see a more active market overall.

If you have questions about buying or selling in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, or anywhere in Rutherford County, reach out. We are here to help you understand what the data means for your specific situation.

About John Turner

John Turner is the team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Since 2000, John and his team have helped families buy and sell over 4,200 homes across Middle Tennessee and has earned more than 421 five-star reviews. He provides weekly market updates to help buyers and sellers make informed decisions based on real data, not guesswork.

Cell: (615) 586-0900 | Office: (615) 234-5020

Email: john@turnervictory.com

Website: www.turnervictory.com

YouTube Facebook Instagram LinkedIn