Let me walk you through what happened in our local market this week and why I think the timing matters.

This Week's Numbers for Rutherford County

This report covers the week ending January 3, 2026, and includes Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Christiana, Lascassas, Fosterville, and Walter Hill.

We currently have 1,292 active listings on the market. This is the lowest inventory level we have seen throughout all of 2025. Last week we had 1,355 listings, so that is a drop of 63 homes in just seven days.

Here are the key stats from the week: 101 new listings came on the market, 66 homes went under contract, 81 homes closed, and 157 listings were either cancelled or expired. We had 1,422 homes sell in the past three months, which gives us a 2.73 months supply of inventory.

That inventory number is lower than last week when we were above 3 months supply. The biggest factor is that significant drop in active listings. However, we are still higher than this time last year when inventory was even tighter.

Buyers Are Still Active Over the Holidays

I hear sellers say all the time that nobody buys a house during the holidays. The numbers tell a different story. 66 homes went under contract this week, right after Christmas. These are buyers who were off work, had time to look, and found what they wanted. They will be in their new homes to start the New Year.

If you are thinking about selling, do not assume the market goes quiet in winter. Motivated buyers are out there.

Why Mortgage Rates Matter Right Now

Here is where things get interesting. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended December at 6.15%. You have to go back to October 2024 to find rates this low. That is 14 months ago.

To put it in perspective, on January 2, 2025, rates were at 6.91%. We are almost a full point lower today. That difference can mean hundreds of dollars per month on a mortgage payment.

But here is the part that concerns me. The last two times we saw rates dip like this, the window did not stay open long. Back in September 2024, we saw rates around 6.08% for about three weeks. Then something changed in the economic data, and within a month rates jumped back up to 6.79%. The same pattern happened in early 2023.

I am not predicting the future. I do not know if rates will go lower or higher from here. What I can tell you is that history shows these low points do not always last. If you are in a position to buy and the current rates fit your budget, it may be worth moving forward sooner rather than waiting.

Comparing 2024, 2025, and 2026

Looking at the data across the past three years, we started 2024 with about 1,124 active listings. We started 2025 with 1,078 listings. Now we are starting 2026 with 1,292 listings. That means we have roughly 150 more homes available now than we did two years ago.

In 2024, inventory actually dropped early in the year because buyer demand was strong. I believe that was tied to the lower mortgage rates we saw at that time. In 2025, demand was weaker, so inventory grew and months supply climbed toward four months at one point.

This year will be interesting to watch. We are starting with more inventory than the past two years, and rates are at their lowest point since late 2024. Whether that translates into stronger buyer activity remains to be seen.

What Price Ranges Have the Most Inventory

If you are curious about where the homes are, the 300,000 to 400,000 and 400,000 to 500,000 price ranges have the most inventory right now. The 500,000s also have a good amount of homes available. Outside of those three ranges, inventory drops off quite a bit.

New Tools Coming Soon

I am excited to share that we have been working on some new market analysis tools that will give you an even clearer picture of what is happening. One thing we are focused on is what I call True Days on Market. The MLS only shows how long a home has been listed under its current listing. If a home was listed for 45 days, taken off, and relisted, the MLS might only show 30 days. We want to give you the full picture so you can make better decisions.

These tools are still being tested, but we expect to roll them out soon. Next week we will also recap all of 2025 once the final numbers are updated in the MLS system.

Watch the Full Market Update

I go into more detail on all of this in my weekly video. You can watch it here:

The Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are at a 14-month low. Inventory dropped to its lowest point of 2025. Buyers are still active even during the holidays. If you have been thinking about making a move, the conditions right now are worth paying attention to.

I cannot tell you what rates will do next month or next quarter. What I can tell you is that based on historical trends, these windows do not always stay open long. If the numbers work for you today, it might be time to take that next step.

If you have questions about buying or selling in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Middle Tennessee, reach out. We are here to help you make a confident decision based on real information, not pressure.