Murfreesboro Real Estate Update: Buyer Demand Hits 3-Year High While Inventory Tightens

Buyer demand in Murfreesboro just hit its highest level in three years. At the same time, new listings are coming in at a slower pace than we have seen in a while. That combination is creating a shift in the market that both buyers and sellers need to pay attention to.

In this week's Murfreesboro Real Estate Report, I break down what the numbers are telling us and what it could mean for you if you are thinking about making a move.

The Numbers This Week

Right now we have 1,313 homes available in Rutherford County. That gives us about a 3.03 month supply of inventory across all price ranges. A balanced market typically falls somewhere between three and six months, so we are sitting right at the lower end of that range.

Here is where it gets interesting. This week we had 65 new listings come on the market. But 121 homes went under contract. That is nearly double the amount of buyers making moves compared to new inventory coming in.

We also closed 47 homes and saw 56 get delisted for various reasons. When you add it all up, the trend is clear. Demand is outpacing supply right now.

Under $300,000 Is Tight

If you are shopping for a home under $300,000 in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County, you already know inventory is limited. Right now there are only 84 active listings in that price range. This week alone, 21 of those went under contract. That means almost 25 percent of the available homes in that price range found a buyer in just one week.

For buyers in this range, be ready to move quickly when you find the right home. For sellers with a home in this price point, you have less competition than you have had in years.

Buyer Demand Hits a 3-Year High

One of the leading indicators we watch is the MBA Purchase Application Index. This measures how many people are applying for mortgages to buy a home. It gives us a glimpse of what is coming in the next four to six weeks.

This week the index came in at 194.1. I had to go all the way back to January 2023 to find a number higher than that. Buyers are coming off the sidelines in a big way.

Why now? A big part of it is mortgage rates. This time last year, rates were above 7 percent. Right now we are seeing rates around 6.09 percent on average. But here is the key. Most lenders I am talking to in Rutherford County are getting qualified buyers approved with a rate starting with a 5. Depending on your credit, loan type, and down payment, that is very possible right now.

Turner Victory Team Market Health Score

This year we introduced something new called the Market Health Score. It takes into account around 25 to 30 different factors at both the national and local level. It goes beyond just looking at months of supply. We are tracking trends, economic indicators, and what is actually happening on the ground here in Middle Tennessee.

Right now we are sitting at a 48, which tells us the market is balanced. It is not strongly favoring buyers or sellers at the moment. But based on what we are seeing with inventory tightening and buyer demand rising, I would not be surprised to see that number start trending toward sellers in the coming weeks.

True Days on Market

One thing I always like to point out is the difference between what the MLS says about days on market and what we call true days on market. When a home gets taken off the market and relisted later, the MLS resets the clock. We do not.

In some price ranges the difference is small. But once you get into the $600,000 and up range, you might see the MLS say 40 days while the true number is closer to 57 or 61 days. It matters when you are making decisions about pricing and timing.

What Trump Said About Housing Prices

This week President Trump spoke at the Davos convention and addressed housing affordability. The key takeaway is that this administration recognizes there is an affordability issue but they are not looking to crash home prices.

He acknowledged that so many average homeowners, not just the wealthy, have built real equity in their homes. Seniors counting on that equity for retirement. Families who have worked hard to build wealth. Bringing down prices would hurt those people.

What I took from that is they are focused on finding ways to make housing more affordable without tanking values. That likely means working on mortgage rates and other factors rather than forcing prices down. If you have been sitting on the sideline waiting for a crash, you may be waiting a long time.

What This Means for You

If you are a seller, the window may be opening. New listings are down and buyer demand is up. You have less competition right now than you have had in recent years. If you have been thinking about making a move, this is worth a conversation.

If you are a buyer, rates are better than they were a year ago and lenders are finding ways to get people approved at even lower rates. But inventory is tight, especially under $300,000. Be prepared and know what you can afford before you start looking.

Our job at the Turner Victory Team is to help you understand where you stand and what your options are. We want to give you clarity so you can make a good decision for your situation.

If you have questions about buying or selling in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County, reach out anytime. We are here to help.

Watch the full video update here

John Turner

Turner Victory Team | Onward Real Estate

Since 2000, John and his team has helped families buy and sell over 4,200 homes across Middle Tennessee and has earned more than 421 five-star reviews.

Cell: 615-586-0900

Office: 615-234-5020

Email: john@turnervictory.com

Website: www.turnervictory.com

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