Should I Buy a Home Now or Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop?

This is one of the most common questions we hear from buyers in Murfreesboro right now. Mortgage rates are lower than they have been in over a year, but they are still higher than the historic lows we saw a few years ago. So the question makes sense: should you buy now, or wait and hope rates drop further?

The short answer is that nobody can predict where rates are going. But we can look at what has happened in the past and help you think through the decision in a way that makes sense for your situation.

Where Rates Are Right Now

As of the end of December 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sat at 6.15 percent. That is the lowest it has been in 14 months. At this time last year, rates were at 6.91 percent, so we have seen nearly a full percentage point improvement.

For a buyer purchasing a $400,000 home with 20 percent down, that difference can mean over $150 per month in savings on the mortgage payment. That adds up over time.

What History Tells Us About Rate Dips

Here is where things get interesting. We have seen similar dips in rates in the past two years, and both times the window did not stay open long.

In September 2024, rates dropped to around 6.08 percent. It lasted about three weeks. Then economic data shifted, and within a month rates jumped back up to 6.79 percent.

The same thing happened in early 2023. Rates dipped to around 6.09 percent in January and February. Then they spiked to 6.73 percent shortly after.

Does that mean rates will jump again this time? Not necessarily. But it does tell us that when rates dip like this, the opportunity is not always there for long. Waiting for a better number that may never come has a cost.

The Risk of Waiting

If you wait and rates drop another quarter point, you save a little money each month. That is a win.

But if you wait and rates go up, you lose that advantage. You also lose time. If home prices continue to rise, even modestly, you are paying more for the same house. And if inventory tightens, you have fewer choices and more competition.

The other risk is that life does not wait. Your lease might end. Your family situation might change. The home you wanted might sell to someone else. Real estate decisions are not just about math. They are about timing, lifestyle, and opportunity.

The Case for Buying Now

If the current rate fits your budget and the monthly payment works for your lifestyle, buying now has some real advantages.

First, you lock in a home at today's price. If prices go up, you benefit from that appreciation.

Second, you can always refinance later if rates drop significantly. You cannot go back and buy a house at last year's price.

Third, inventory right now is higher than it was at this point in 2024 or 2025. You have more options. Sellers are more willing to negotiate. The market is not as frantic as it has been in the past.

The Case for Waiting

If the current rate puts your monthly payment outside your comfort zone, waiting might make sense. There is no point in stretching yourself thin just to say you bought a house.

If you are not sure where you want to live or how long you plan to stay, waiting can also be smart. Buying a home makes the most sense when you plan to stay for at least a few years.

And if you are still building your down payment or cleaning up your credit, taking a few more months to strengthen your financial position can help you qualify for better terms.

How to Decide

Here are some questions to ask yourself:

Does the monthly payment at today's rate fit comfortably in my budget? If yes, you are in a good position to move forward.

Am I planning to stay in the area for at least three to five years? If yes, buying makes more sense than renting.

Am I waiting for a specific number, or am I just hoping things get better? If you are waiting without a clear target, you might be waiting forever.

What happens if rates go up instead of down? If that would take you out of the market entirely, it might be worth acting now while you can.

The Bottom Line

Nobody can tell you exactly where mortgage rates will be in three months or six months. What we can tell you is that rates right now are at their lowest point in over a year, and history shows these windows can close quickly.

The best time to buy a home is when you are financially ready, when you find a home that fits your needs, and when the numbers work for your budget. If all three of those things line up, waiting for a slightly better rate is a gamble that may not pay off.

If you want to talk through the numbers and see what makes sense for your situation, reach out. We are happy to help you look at the data and make a decision that feels right for you.

John Turner

Team Leader, Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate

John Turner has been a Realtor in Murfreesboro, Tennessee since 2000, helping clients buy and sell over 4,200 homes. With more than 25 years of experience and 421 five-star reviews, John and the Turner Victory Team provide guidance and clarity through education, helping you make confident real estate decisions in Rutherford County and across Middle Tennessee.

Phone: 615.586.0900

Email: John@TurnerVictory.com

Website: TurnerVictory.com

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