What a 21% Jump in Pending Sales Tells Us About the Murfreesboro Market

Numbers tell a story if you know where to look. Right now, the Murfreesboro housing market is sending a clear signal. Through January 17, pending home sales in Rutherford County are up 21% compared to the same period last year. That is 232 homes under contract in 2026 versus 191 in 2025.

One week of strong activity could be a fluke. But when you combine this with what the leading indicators are showing, a pattern emerges. Buyers are coming back, and the data suggests this is just the beginning.

Breaking Down the Pending Sales Numbers

Let's look at how 2026 has started week by week. The first week of January brought 66 pending sales. The second week jumped to 94. This past week hit 109. That third week alone was 16% higher than the week before.

Compare this to 2025 at the same points, and 2026 is running ahead each week. This is not a one-time spike. It is a trend building momentum.

Pending sales matter because they tell us what is happening right now. Closed sales tell us what happened 30 to 45 days ago. If you want to know where the market is headed, watch the pendings. You can see the full weekly breakdown on our market updates page.

Mortgage Rates Are Driving the Shift

The biggest factor behind this activity is mortgage rates. On January 15, the 30-year average sat at 6.06%. Go back to January 16 of last year, and it was 7.04%. That is nearly a full point lower than where we were 12 months ago.

A one-point difference may not sound dramatic, but it changes the math for buyers. On a $400,000 home with 10% down, that difference is roughly $230 per month. Over a year, that adds up to nearly $2,800 in savings. Over the life of a 30-year loan, it totals over $82,000.

We have seen this pattern before. In February 2023, rates dipped to around 6.09% and pending sales spiked. The same thing happened in late September and early October of 2024. When rates touch this level, buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines start to move.

The MBA Purchase Index Confirms the Trend

The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks weekly mortgage applications. Their Purchase Index measures how many people are applying for home loans, not refinances. This is one of the best leading indicators we have.

Right now, the Purchase Index is near its highest level in three years. You have to go back to late 2022 and early 2023 to find numbers close to what we are seeing today.

Why does this matter? When someone applies for a mortgage to buy a home, they typically have something under contract within three to six weeks. A rising Purchase Index tells us more contracts are coming. The pipeline is filling up.

This is not speculation. It is people taking action, getting pre-approved, and preparing to buy.

Showing Activity Backs It Up

Another leading indicator we track is showing activity. This measures how many times buyers are walking through homes with their agents.

In the $285,000 to $300,000 range, we saw about five showings per listing this past week. That is solid activity for entry-level homes, which is where first-time buyers tend to shop.

The surprise came from the luxury market. In the $1 million to $1.2 million range, listings averaged eight showings each. Throughout this rate cycle, many expected the high end to slow down significantly. That has not happened. The luxury segment in Rutherford County has held up better than predicted, and that trend continues.

What the Inventory Picture Looks Like

We currently have 1,352 active homes on the market in Rutherford County. That gives us a 3.14 month supply of inventory, which keeps us in balanced-to-seller's market territory.

The tightest inventory is below $300,000 at just 1.1 months of supply. From $300,000 to $500,000, we stay below three months. These are the price ranges where competition is strongest and homes move fastest.

Above $500,000, inventory loosens to around four months of supply in several brackets. The exception is the $900,000 and up range, which sits at only two months. Keep in mind that the luxury segment is a small portion of the overall market, so a few listings can shift those numbers quickly.

What This Means Going Forward

When multiple leading indicators point the same direction, it is worth paying attention. Pending sales are up. Mortgage applications are near three-year highs. Showing activity is strong. Rates are down nearly a point from last year.

None of this suggests a return to the frenzy of 2021 when homes sold in hours with multiple offers over asking price. That kind of market is not healthy for anyone except sellers, and even then it creates its own problems.

What it does suggest is that 2026 will see more homes sell than 2025. We are not looking at a dramatic rebound. We are looking at steady improvement in a market that spent the last couple of years working through higher rates and affordability challenges.

For sellers, this is a window worth watching. Buyer activity is picking up while rates are favorable. The sweet spot remains the $300,000 to $450,000 range where demand is strongest. If you are thinking about selling, our seller guide walks through the process step by step.

For buyers, there is more competition now than there was at this time last year. But borrowing conditions are better than they were 12 months ago. That one-point rate difference is real money in your pocket every month. Our homebuyer guide can help you get started.

If you have questions about what these numbers mean for your situation in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County, reach out. We are happy to walk through the data with you.

About John Turner

John Turner is the team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Since 2000, John and his team has helped families buy and sell over 4,200 homes across Middle Tennessee and has earned more than 421 five-star reviews. He provides weekly market updates to help buyers and sellers make informed decisions based on real data, not guesswork.

Cell: (615) 586-0900 | Office: (615) 234-5020

Email: john@turnervictory.com

Website: www.turnervictory.com

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