What Does It Mean When More Homes Go Under Contract Than Come on the Market?

When more homes go under contract than come on the market, it means inventory is shrinking. Buyers are absorbing homes faster than sellers are listing them. If the trend continues, competition increases, prices stabilize or rise, and sellers gain leverage.

This is exactly what happened in Murfreesboro and Rutherford County last week. We saw 121 homes go under contract while only 65 new listings hit the market. That is nearly a 2 to 1 ratio.

Why Does This Ratio Matter?

Think of the housing market like a bathtub. New listings are the water coming in. Pending sales are the water draining out. When more water drains than comes in, the tub empties. In real estate terms, that means fewer homes available for buyers to choose from.

A balanced market usually has roughly the same number of new listings and pendings each week. When pendings consistently outpace new listings, the market shifts in favor of sellers. Buyers have fewer options. Homes sell faster. Prices hold steady or go up.

What Are the Numbers in Murfreesboro Right Now?

For the week ending January 25, 2026, Rutherford County saw:

65 new listings
121 homes went under contract
1,313 total active listings
3.3 months of supply

That 121 to 65 ratio is significant. It tells us that buyer demand is outpacing the supply of new homes hitting the market. And this is not a one-week fluke. We have seen this pattern building over the past few weeks.

How Does This Compare to Last Year?

At this time last year, the market looked different. We had more new listings coming on and fewer buyers making offers. Mortgage rates were above 7 percent, which kept a lot of people on the sidelines.

Now rates are closer to 6.6 to 6.9 percent on average, and many lenders are getting qualified buyers into the 5s. That drop has brought buyers back into the market. The MBA Purchase Application Index, which tracks mortgage applications, just hit 194.1. That is the highest level since January 2023.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

If you have been thinking about selling your home in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County, this trend is worth paying attention to. Fewer new listings means less competition. More buyers in the market means more potential offers.

This does not mean you can overprice your home and expect multiple offers overnight. Pricing still matters. Condition still matters. But the window for sellers is looking better than it has in a while.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

For buyers, especially those looking under $300,000, inventory is tight. Last week, there were only 84 active listings in that price range across Rutherford County. 21 of them went under contract in a single week. That is 25 percent of the available inventory gone in seven days.

If you are a buyer in this market, be prepared. Get pre-approved before you start looking. Know what you can afford. When you find a home that fits, be ready to move.

Will This Trend Continue?

No one can predict exactly what will happen next. But the data right now points to continued tightening if new listings stay low and buyer demand stays high. We are watching this closely each week.

If you want to stay up to date on what is happening in the Murfreesboro market, check out our weekly market updates every Sunday.

Questions About Buying or Selling?

Whether you are thinking about listing your home or buying your first one, the Turner Victory Team is here to help you understand where you stand. We focus on giving you clarity so you can make a confident decision.

Download our free Homebuyer Guide or Seller Guide to get started. Or reach out anytime to talk through your situation.

John Turner

Turner Victory Team | Onward Real Estate

Since 2000, John and his team has helped families buy and sell over 4,200 homes across Middle Tennessee and has earned more than 421 five-star reviews.

Cell: 615-586-0900

Office: 615-234-5020

Email: john@turnervictory.com

Website: www.turnervictory.com

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