This Week's Numbers for Rutherford County

Our Turner Victory Team market health score for Rutherford County currently sits at 43. That number takes into account local market conditions, macro indicators, and demand signals. Here is a quick look at where things stand this week across Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Lascassas, Rockvale, Christiana, and the rest of the county.

There are 1,346 active homes on the market right now. That is basically flat compared to 1,349 last week. We had 119 new listings come on the market, 131 homes go under contract, 95 closings, and 83 homes get delisted. Month supply is sitting at 3.3 months, and our average true days on the market across the county is 110 days.

Pendings Are Outpacing New Listings

This is the story of the week. When more homes go under contract than come on the market, that is a sign of tightening. We have been watching new listings trend below 2025 numbers for most of the year so far, and this week's 119 new listings continues that pattern.

On the flip side, pendings are strong. This week's 131 is right in line with last week's 133 and well ahead of where we were at this point in both 2025 and 2024. Going back to 2023, we are tracking just slightly below those numbers, which is about where we expected to be this year. If you are curious about the three keys to getting your home sold in this market, that is something we covered recently on the blog.

Closings Are Running Ahead of Last Year

February is not officially closed out yet since the last day of the month fell on a Friday and not all the data is in. But as of right now, we have 358 closings for February compared to 334 at this point last year. That puts us up roughly 7 percent. January was similar with 301 closings versus 286 the year before.

Looking ahead to March, based on where pendings are tracking right now, my projection is somewhere between 450 and 470 closings. Last March had 419. I wrote that number down so we can go back at the end of the month and see how close the projection was.

Mortgage Rates Dropped Below 6 Percent

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closed out last week at 5.98 percent according to FRED data. That is the first time we have been below 6 percent in roughly three and a half years. A year ago at this time, rates were sitting at 6.76 percent, and they topped out at 6.89 percent back in May of last year.

That nearly full percentage point drop makes a real difference. For the same house, a buyer is going to have a lower monthly payment today than they would have a year ago. Or they could afford a slightly more expensive home for the same payment. Either way, affordability is trending in the right direction. If you have been wondering why there are more homes on the market this year and what that means, we broke that down recently as well.

What About New Inventory

This is probably my biggest watch item right now. New listings are coming in a little slower than expected. We thought that as mortgage rates dropped, we would see some of that locked-in inventory loosen up. A lot of homeowners have been sitting on 3 percent or 3.5 percent mortgage rates and could not justify moving into a rate in the sixes.

But with rates now in the high fives, I think some of those homeowners are going to start doing the math and realize they can make it work. Especially when you factor in the equity they have built up. If you have been thinking about making a move but felt locked in, the numbers are more in your favor right now than they have been at any point in the last two or three years.

Watch the Video

I go into more detail on all of this in my weekly video update. You can watch it here:

The Big Picture

The word I keep coming back to is momentum. The market is not crazy and it is not dead. But the data is pointing in a clear direction. Pendings are up, closings are ahead of last year, rates are at their lowest point in years, and affordability is improving. At the same time, new listings are not keeping up with demand, which could tighten things up as we move deeper into spring.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County, we would love to sit down and look at the data with you. The Turner Victory Team has been helping neighbors buy and sell homes across Middle Tennessee since 2000. We offer free consultations where we look at your situation, review the numbers, and help you understand your options. No pressure, just clarity.

Call or text John Turner at 615-586-0900, email john@turnervictory.com, or visit turnervictory.com to get started.