Where Did All This Inventory Come From?

To understand why inventory is up 42%, you have to look at where we have been. In 2023 and 2024, inventory across Rutherford County was extremely low. Homeowners who locked in mortgage rates in the 2% to 4% range had very little incentive to sell and take on a new mortgage at 6% or 7%. That kept a lot of homes off the market.

When we moved into 2025, that lock-in effect started loosening up. Life events — job changes, growing families, divorces, retirements — eventually force people to move regardless of their interest rate. So listings started climbing. The 42% increase is not because the market collapsed. It is because we are comparing against two years of abnormally low inventory.

Raw Numbers Do Not Tell the Whole Story

Here is where a lot of people get tripped up. They see 1,377 homes on the market and assume sellers are in trouble. But the number that actually matters is months supply of inventory. That takes into account how fast homes are selling relative to how many are available.

Right now Rutherford County is sitting at a 3.3 month supply. That puts us in a slight buyer's market, but just barely. A balanced market is typically between 4 and 6 months. So even with inventory up 42%, we are still below what most economists would call balanced.

Compare that to where we were in 2023 when months supply was well under 2 months in most price ranges. That was an extreme seller's market. What we have now is closer to normal, and normal is not a bad thing.

Not All Price Ranges Are Created Equal

The inventory picture looks very different depending on what price range you are shopping in. Under $300,000, there are only 91 homes available across all of Rutherford County. That price range has less than a two-month supply and those homes are moving quickly. Most of them are going to be townhomes or condos, but if you are a buyer in that range, competition is still real.

The $300,000 to $500,000 range is more balanced. Buyers have options and a little negotiating room, but well-priced homes are still attracting attention. Above $700,000 is where inventory really stacks up. Over a third of the homes in that price range have actually been on the market before, meaning they were listed, pulled off, and relisted. That tells you pricing is the issue at the higher end.

The Trend That Matters Most Right Now

Here is what I am watching closely. New listings coming on the market are down nearly 5% compared to the three-year average. At the same time, pending home sales are up 12.5% over that same average. More buyers are making offers while fewer new homes are being listed. If that trend continues, inventory is going to start tightening.

We are also seeing mortgage rates at 6.01%, the lowest in over three years. Lower rates bring more buyers into the market. MBA mortgage applications are running above where they were at this time in 2023, 2024, and 2025. The demand side is building.

On the supply side, national housing starts are at 1.4 million, which is low. Builders have pulled back. If they do not ramp up production soon and new listings continue to lag, this 42% inventory surplus could shrink faster than people expect.

What This Means If You Are Buying or Selling in Murfreesboro

If you are a buyer, right now is actually a good time to be looking. You have more choices than buyers had in 2023 or 2024, rates are more favorable, and you have some room to negotiate. That does not mean you should lowball every offer, but you do not have to waive inspections or pay $30,000 over asking like people were doing two years ago.

If you are a seller, the 42% number should not scare you. What should concern you is how you position your home. Nearly half of all homes listed in Rutherford County do not sell on their first attempt. That has nothing to do with market conditions and everything to do with pricing, presentation, and promotion. Homes that are priced correctly from the start are still selling. Homes that are overpriced are sitting.

The inventory is there. The buyers are there. The question is whether your home is positioned to attract them. If you want to know where your home fits in the current market, this week's full market update breaks down every price range across Rutherford County.