In this week's video, I cover what is happening with inventory, buyer activity, mortgage rates, and why the timing matters right now more than most people realize. Here is the full breakdown:

Mortgage Rates Hit 6.01% — The Lowest in Over Three Years

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.01% this week. That is the lowest we have seen in over three years. We got close four or five weeks ago at 6.06%, but each time we neared this level over the past couple of years, rates bounced back up. This time they have stayed low for three to five consecutive weeks, which is a different pattern.

Could we see rates dip below 6%? It is possible. There are a lot of factors at play, but the trend right now is in the buyer's favor. Every time that rate drops, your monthly payment drops with it. For anyone looking to buy a home in Rutherford County, affordability has improved over the past year when you factor in income, prices, and mortgage rates.

The 15-year rate came in at 5.35%, which is worth considering. If you are in a position to do a 15-year mortgage, or if you bought a home in the past two or three years at a higher rate and are thinking about refinancing, this could be a good time to look at that option.

More Buyers Coming In, Fewer Homes Hitting the Market

This is the story that matters most right now. Pending home sales across Rutherford County are up 12.5% over the three-year average. New listings are down nearly 5% over that same average. That means more buyers are actively making offers while the number of homes available is not keeping up.

MBA mortgage applications came in at 157 this week. That is down slightly from the peak we hit about three weeks ago, which was a three-year high. But year over year, applications are still up. That tells us more buyers are entering the market at this time of year than they have in two or three years.

If you are selling, this combination of rising buyer demand and declining new listings is exactly what you want to see. The window is open right now.

Rutherford County by the Numbers — Week 8

Here is where things stand across Rutherford County this week. We have 1,377 homes available on the market. That is up 42% over the three-year average, but keep in mind that 2023 and 2024 had very low inventory. The increase we saw in 2025 is what pushed that average up. Our months supply of inventory is at 3.3, which puts us in a slight buyer's market. It leans just a little toward the buyer based on the balance of inventory and demand.

Under $300,000, there are only 91 homes available and that price range is moving the fastest at less than a two-month supply. The $300,000 to $400,000 range and the $400,000 to $500,000 range are balanced. Above $700,000, over a third of the homes on the market have been listed before. That tells you something about pricing at the higher end.

On average, homes on the market are getting two showings per week. Our true average days on market — which accounts for homes that came off the market and were relisted — is 113 days. That number is higher than what the MLS shows because the MLS only tracks the most recent listing period. In some price ranges like $600,000, the MLS shows 40 days while the true number is closer to 58. Knowing the real number helps set proper expectations.

2026 Pendings Are Tracking Between 2023 and 2024

At the start of the year, I predicted that 2026 sales would come in somewhere between 2023 and 2024 numbers. Eight weeks in, that prediction is holding. Every week except for the ice storm week, we have had more pending home sales than 2024 and more than 2025. We are not quite matching the first quarter of 2023, but we are trending in that direction.

February closings are sitting at 237 with one week left. Last February had 334. The final week of any month typically has the most closings, so we could close the gap. It will be tight, but the pipeline is there.

Housing Starts Are Low — And That Should Concern Us

Nationally, housing starts are at 1.4 million. That is low. Builders have pulled back because of market conditions, and that is understandable. But here is the problem. If a builder pulls a permit today, it could be six months to a year before that home is ready to be sold. If buyer activity keeps increasing and new listings stay flat, the lack of new construction means we could end up with tighter inventory down the road. Tighter inventory puts upward pressure on prices, and right now we do not need that. We need prices to stay level while wages continue catching up.

Nearly Half of All Homes Listed Do Not Sell

This is a stat I talked about in last week's report and it is worth repeating. Nearly 50% of the homes that come on the market in Rutherford County do not sell on their first attempt. That is a sobering number. Everybody thinks their home is going to sell. The data says otherwise.

Getting your home sold comes down to what I call the three P's: price it correctly, present it correctly, and promote it correctly. If any one of those is off, your chances drop significantly. Buyers are out there, but they have options. If you want a deeper look at what overpricing actually costs sellers, we recently looked at whether foreclosures could impact the Murfreesboro market and the answer may surprise you.

What This Means for You

If you are a buyer, conditions are improving. Rates are at a three-year low, inventory gives you choices, and you have a little more negotiating room than you did in 2023 or 2024.

If you are a seller, the spring market is not something you wait for. It is happening now. The buyers are here. The rates are helping them afford more. But you still need to price your home right, present it well, and have an agent who is going to promote it properly. If you are curious about what life is like in one of Rutherford County's growing communities, check out our recent post on what it is like living in Christiana, Tennessee.

We bring this data to you every week because we believe a more informed buyer and seller makes a better decision. That is what we are here for.