Why This Number Matters
In a balanced market, new listings and pending sales tend to move in a similar range. When pendings start outpacing new listings, it is a signal that demand is absorbing supply faster than it is being replaced. It does not mean we are about to run out of homes. There are still 1,346 active listings in Rutherford County. But it does mean that the pool of available homes is not growing, and if this trend continues, inventory could start to tighten heading into the spring market.
To put it in simple terms, think of it like a store shelf. If customers are taking 131 items off the shelf each week but the store is only restocking 119, the shelf is slowly getting emptier. That is essentially what is happening right now in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, and across the county.
How This Compares to Previous Years
What makes this interesting is that pending sales have been trending above both 2024 and 2025 numbers for most of the year. This week's 131 is right in line with last week's 133. Going back to this same point last year, there were only 118 pendings. The year before that it was 113. So buyer activity is clearly stronger than what we have seen the past two years.
At the same time, new listings have been trending below 2025 numbers for most of the year so far. This week's 119 continues that pattern. We thought as mortgage rates dropped below 6 percent that more homeowners would list their homes. That has not happened yet, at least not at the pace we expected.
What This Means for Buyers
If you are a buyer in the Murfreesboro area, the data is telling you that competition is gradually increasing. Homes are going under contract at a faster pace than new options are showing up. That does not mean you need to panic, but it does mean waiting too long could mean fewer choices and potentially more competition on the homes you do like.
The good news is that with rates at 5.98 percent, your buying power is stronger than it has been in years. A year ago at this same time, rates were at 6.76 percent. That is real money back in your pocket every single month.
What This Means for Sellers
If you have been thinking about selling your home in Murfreesboro or Rutherford County, this is the kind of data that should get your attention. Buyer demand is strong and new competition from other sellers is coming in slower than normal. That combination works in your favor.
If you are one of those homeowners who has been feeling locked in by a low mortgage rate, this might be worth a conversation. With rates now in the high fives and the equity most homeowners have built up over the past few years, the math on making a move looks different than it did six months ago.
Looking Ahead
We are watching this closely. One week does not make a trend, but this is not just one week. Pendings have been outperforming the past two years consistently, and new listings have been lagging behind. If this continues through March and into April, we could see inventory tighten up and month supply drop. Right now month supply sits at 3.3 months, which is already below the 5 to 6 month range that is considered a balanced market.
If you want to see all the numbers from this week's market update, you can watch the full video here. And if you want to talk about what this data means for your specific situation, the Turner Victory Team offers free consultations. No pressure, just a look at the data and an honest conversation about your options.
Call or text John Turner at 615-586-0900, email john@turnervictory.com, or visit turnervictory.com.
